Forecasts and Projections for 2009

It's the time of year to examine the state of librarianship as we enter the new year. LibGig talked to three people out of many polled to determine the prognostications and potential revelations of what will be next year: one academic librarian, one third-party recruiter and one human resources director. Below are the thoughts and forecasts from three different points of view.

LARRY WHITE, CO-INTERIM CHAIR, EASTERN CAROLINA UNIVERSITY LIS PROGRAM:

In my thinking, the job market will be more challenging this coming year due to the over all economy and this impact on libraries. As the economic downturn is expected to last at least 1-2 years, I would believe the job market will become more challenging before it improves in general. However, there will be parts of the job market for librarians and information service professionals that will continue to offer good employment opportunities in spite of the overall economic downturn. Libraries will be looking at creating a more nimble and flexible workforces to adapt to the reduced resources available to their library while the demand for service continues to grow in changing technologies.

Job seekers with flexibility in their professional skills, geographic location, and willingness to be more of a generalist than a niche professional will continue to find good employment opportunities. Those job seekers with expertise in technology in service support and applications will see continued employment opportunities as libraries continue to respond to increased technology sophistication and resource challenges by incorporating new technologies to maintain / expand service while attempting to reduce operational costs though automation of services. Another area that will continue to see good employment opportunities over the next few years will be school media specialist as there will continue to be a need for new professionals and to replace the large number of retiring school media specialist through out the country.

I cannot speak to the whole of the academic world at this time, but historically when there are economic downturns, there is an increase in students wanting to return to college to improve their career skills or develop a new career knowledge skill set. Library and information science seems to be no different. In communicating with other educators, many LIS programs are experiencing strong growth in their applications for admission and in their program (ECU’s program has grown 71% since 2005). The challenge to this process is that the universities are also experiencing reduced resource support and there is a limit to the amount of growth that programs will be able to absorb. It is my belief that while there may be more potential students, the available space in LIS programs will not match this increase. Therefore, to ensure the best quality of the student experience and the program itself, application requirements will probably become more competitive in many LIS programs and the number of spaces in programs for new admissions will be more limited.

BRAD ROGERS, RECRUITER, LIBRARY ASSOCIATES COMPANIES:

Nobody can really predict what will happen going forward in this next year due to the constant flux of the economy. I am not seeing a huge amount of job loss in the library/information industry but there are budget cutbacks and not as many new positions on the horizon. In addition, many people who would regularly be looking to leave their positions to pursue other opportunities are staying put to have stability and this does not help those who are currently looking for work. However, in my opinion, it seems everyone is holding their breath and waiting to see what comes next more than being directly affected by the current economic conditions, which is a good thing for our industry. I would expect a rise in the number of applicants to ILS programs as usually when there is a lack of work; people will return to school to get more education and are able to support themselves with student loans. The BIG question is that once these new graduates get out of school, will there be any jobs?

Generally, with a new president and a hopeful new direction, I believe the economy will turn around but it will take time. I would not expect a significant increase in the job market until maybe the fall of next year as it will take several months to figure out how the bailouts and other factors are effecting the economy. If President-elect Obama moves forward with creating “green jobs” and other job building initiatives, I predict there will be many opportunities for library and information professionals in the areas of research and the organizing of this newly created market.

JEAN MANTEGNA, HUMAN RESOURCES DIRECTOR, BALTIMORE COUNTY PUBLIC LIBRARY:

Thanks to fiscal responsibility and good county management, our situation is stable at the moment. We are maintaining our budget but it should be noted that during difficult economic times and while budgets can change as times get tight, customers are using the library more and more for our resources, whether its online, DVD, books, scanners, copiers.

Our work is more valuable now than ever and Baltimore county has operated carefully and monitored the situation. We've made good budget projections that have anticipated the downturn. I think other libraries have not fared as well because they have not anticipated and manintained their budgets.

To that end, we are building 7 new positions at the library and so we're increasing budget. We're also adding more buildings. We are growing, so we aren't slashing. but we will have to monitor the situation with respect to staffing to remain stable, and after the first quarter 2009, we'll reassess and see where we are.

The first quarter looks okay from here and we can only make projections a quarter at a time.